Hey PokPok Fam! What a rush! 😆 

If you weren’t glued to the markets last Friday, we’re not sure what kind of crypto bull you are!

We’re breaking out, things are getting wild.🃏 

Is this the swing to 80k we’ve been waiting for? Let’s find out! 🤘 

WHAT’S HAPPENING? ⌛️

• 🚀 PlanB’s 200WMA Bull Thesis 🔡 

• 👮 An attack on free speech? TON drops >20% as Telegram CEO Arrested ⭕️ 

• 🗳️ Robert F. Kennedy Jr. exits the presidential race and supports Trump 🏇 

• (August 29) GDP Growth Rate QoQ (2nd Estimate)🚨

• (August 30) Core PCE Price Index MoM 🚨

Coming up this week ⭐️

(August 29) GDP Growth Rate QoQ (2nd Estimate)

• What GDP Growth means: GDP Growth Rate is one of the staple indicators for the Fed in understanding the growth of the US economy. More growth = more appetite for risk (yes, like Bitcoin 😄). The converse would mean the opposite, less appetite for risk. Robust GDP Growth should be coupled with lowering inflation to reduce risks of further economic tightening.

• Prior/Forecast: 1.4% Prior / 2.8% Forecast 🔥 

(August 30) Core PCE Price Index MoM

• What Core PCE means: Core PCE represents Personal Consumption Expenditures excluding Food/Energy prices and is the preferred fed inflation gauge. Lower PCE = Less Inflation (and vice versa).

• Prior/Forecast: 0.2% Prior / 0.2% Forecast 🤩

Thesis on Economic Reports

• Bullish Thesis:

  •  Over-expected GDP Growth results in a more risk-on economy, especially as interest rate cuts are right around the corner. This economic strengthening could lead to crypto and stock market continuations to the upside. 🚀 

  • This should be bundled with an under-expected Core CPE report to show further easing inflation during this growth.

• Bearish Thesis:

  • Conversely, an under-expected GDP Growth Rate may create fear around the next interest-rate cut as a potential signal of a weakening economy, which would lead to retracements in the markets over the next few months. 👀 

  • Additionally, an over-expected Core PCE (which we find unlikely would result in Powell having second thoughts on carrying out his new dovish position in economic policy which may extend the market’s lack of liquidity for a longer period.

Telegram CEO Arrested. Does this present an Opportunity?

On Saturday evening, Pavel Durov, the CEO of Telegram, was arrested in France due to alleged complicity in drug trafficking, child exploitation and fraud.

The media has taken this as an attempt to shut Telegram down and block free speech. So far there is no evidence of the CEO participating in any criminal acts, except offering a platform for users to express free speech.

However, free speech should be under the bounds of criminal law, so this case will be debatable due to Pavel Durov’s lack of cooperation with the police on previous occasions.

TON sunk over 20% as the news was announced due to the potential uncertainty of the platform’s future.

We do see this as a potential opportunity as TON may develop to be the “free speech” token. Crypto Twitter/X has already reacted to this by pursuing a “Resistance Movement” against those trying to block free speech.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. exits the race and joins Trump.

With 72 days to go for the US Election, things are getting heated. RFK Jr. just removed himself from the presidential ballot and decided to join Trump in his campaign.

With RFK having 1-2% of the forecasted votes before abandoning his campaign, we may see these voters turn to Trump as the new alternative vote. This increase could be enough to push the election on Trump’s side. A smart strategy, indeed.

In the past few weeks, Harris’s advantage has narrowed, and now both sides forecasting a 50/50 probability on Polymarket.

As RFK Jr. and Trump work together, their pro-crypto policies may combine to provide even better benefits for the crypto market, as opposed to the Democrats’ lousy efforts so far.

The Crypto Bull Case

Last weekend was filled with joy for the bulls as Bitcoin broke out of its previous range. However, altcoins continued to underperform.

ETH and SOL are the key highlights that have not yet managed to break out of their range highs properly.

Not a very convincing argument towards going risk-on for altcoins as our altcoin dominance metric also staggers.

The question is, was this just temporary or are we going to continue to the upside? 👀 

An extremely interesting long-term thesis made by PlanB is based on BTC price action around 200 Week Moving Average where he argues a potential launch in price over the coming months.

This aligns with the few occasions we can number from the previous cycles and does seem like a convincing argument.

So from PlanB’s perspective, yes, the current BTC rally will continue and may result in explosive price action. 👀🔥 

We think it is likely that BTC could see this sort of movement with the combination of US Election and Interest Rate cuts coming up.

Prepare your bags, everyone! 🚀 

However, in terms of validity, it’s important to get into a technical (and perhaps a little sceptical) mindset around statistics.

Not all historical data will represent the future (often little of it does). This does not mean that all technical analysis is useless as many say, it just means that whatever you are using in an attempt to bring order to chaos should be taken with a pinch of salt.

For example, 3 or 4 correlations of MA and Price Actions in the past 10 years are not enough to justify causality.

All it takes is a black swan event such as war to push us to 40k BTC and start the bear market early. This would invalidate any bullish technical analysis. 👀 

Always have a backup plan, implement hedging techniques into your portfolios and know your invalidation points for your positions.

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