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Good evening, everyone! We’ve had a rough week (as expected). 😅 

With a few weeks remaining for September, we’ve got lots more things to pay attention to, including the Fed Rate cut.

👇️ There've been some changes since Monday, here’s our analysis. 👇️ 

This Week’s Juice 🧃

• 🪙 Bitcoin hits our $54k Weekly Target 🎯 

• 🪙 Altcoin Performance against BTC heading for a change in market structure since 2021 🔥

• 📉 Fed Official says “odds of a recession are rising" 👀 

• 🏦 Economy: Unemployment Rate @ 4.2% (expected 4.2%) ✅ 

• 🏦 Economy: Non-Farm Payrolls @ 142K (expected 160K) ❌

Getting up to speed! ⭐

Economic Reports 📉 

Expected Rate Cut for September | Is it up only now? ✂️ 

• Updated: We’re most likely to get a 25bps rate cut this month, with a potential further 25-50bps rate cut in November. 👀 

• We’re preparing for a new liquidity cycle now, however, this doesn’t mean the next few months will be easy.

• With US Elections coming through, geopolitical tensions high, and a potentially unstable economy, it may take a few months for things to pick up in the crypto world.

US Recession incoming? Can we get a soft landing?

A Fed Official, Goolsbee, has mentioned there is an increased risk of a recession in the US.

This could mean that the rate cut now, before a recession, may be an attempt to achieve a soft landing by forcing the liquidity cycle.

However, while this may be the Fed’s favoured approach, it doesn’t always end up very well.

The Stock Market is over-extended, and seemingly for the past couple of years, there has been a need for a reset.

We can see the increasing fears as the stock market drops this week, with the S&P 500 coming in 4.3% down, not too different from our beloved “Black Monday” back in August.

We’re suspicious of these policy interventions by the Fed as we may potentially see further leverage unwinding in the stock market.

It’s important to not ignore the potential for a recession.

S&P500 | Targets for a “Doomsday” Scenario

While crypto is not directly correlated with the S&P500, a larger stock market drop would lead to significant downturns in the crypto market.

The S&P500 usually runs on a cycle, like most markets. With the current highs in, we’d be expecting a potential rally down towards the 4750 level or even as low as 4,500.

This would be confirmed by a recession or significant issues with the economy following this rate cut. It doesn’t mean it will happen, but let’s be honest, it’s overextended, and the US Economy doesn’t reflect this in the slightest; there needs to be a stock market reset.

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Market Analysis ✨

The downtrend continues as the conspicuous “red” September comes into play. Let’s check out what’s going on! 👀 

BTC Analysis

• We’ve formed a medium-term downtrend in BTC, heading towards August lows. 👀 

• It seems like the market is not taking September’s uncertainty lightly.

• Due to the significant downturn in the past few days with little demand to push for retracements towards the upside, we can see us making lower lows within the next few days.

• However, BTC is already down more than the average September drop, so we may see more “conservative” drops made from here.

Looking at the upside 📈 🚀

• Similar to last week, we’re looking at any long positions being tight to take profits on retracements towards the downside, nothing more. (unless you are accumulating spot or low-leverage BTC). 👈️ 

• Liquidation Magnet Level 🧲 57k

• Primary Targets: 55k (Daily VWAP), 57k (Weekly/Monthly VWAP), 58.2k

• Currently, we’d be against taking longs until we make a significant low below $50.7k as it is a key level. (Swing Failure Pattern)

• This would be especially key if we get a 4H close below our “golden pocket” range displayed on our charts.

Looking at the downside 📉 👀 

• No significant liquidity levels to the downside.

• This shows that there is little demand for longing around this area, which may justify a further drop until this demand is found (Action Theory)

• However, if we were to fail to find demand around our current low (50.7k), we would look for a leap lower due to a lack of liquidity.

• Primary Targets: 50.7k, 44k, 41.6k

Ethereum Analysis

• Despite altcoins performing well in the past couple of days, Ethereum has done the complete opposite of “well”.

• We have broken our main downside levels for the week, and now are targeting a swing failure of the 2,120 low. This would be the next potential long entry.

Altcoin Analysis

• Finally, an interesting week for the world of altcoins. We’re starting to see a change in trend in outperformance against BTC. 🚀 

• We’re hoping to make a higher high within the next week which would push us to look at larger altcoin strategies towards the end of the year as opposed to being focused solely on blue-chip investments in the short-term.

PokPok: Introducing $PEGG

PokPok has launched its $PEGG token this week! We’ll be carrying out some research with them over the coming weeks and provide an in-depth analysis, however, we’d like to show off some of their achievements so far, and why this could be a great opportunity for everyone!

As a brand new project, PokPok boasts a ~$140k TVL within the first two days of launching!

We believe that the >240% APR on their pool could offer significant returns in the coming months as the platform launches towards the end of September.

As the $PEGG token enters its first weeks of price discovery, it’s important to understand that market dynamics may end up pricing the project differently to its current “discovery” price.

However, with a market cap of $7.5m, and being the world's first Gamified Options platform, we can easily expect a valuation of at least $50m within 6 months of launching their platform. 🔥 🔥 🔥 

We’re working together with PokPok to provide effective marketing through their newsletter by giving real value to the community!

➡️ Stake your $PEGG here!

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