Happy Friday, PokPok fam!

We knew this would be an exciting week, let’s get right into it. 🔥 

This Week’s Juice 🧃

• 👀 BTC Breaks out of it’s high of 62.8k — what’s coming next? 🚀 

• 🔥 Dovish: Market surges as Powell says “the time has come” for Rate Cuts 🏦 

• 🪙 We’re looking to shift our Investment Strategy in preparation for a much-needed “altcoin season” 👀 

• 👍️ Mt Gox paid over 92% of creditors already ⛰️ 

• 🎮️ Sony builds a layer 2 👀 

Getting up to speed! ⭐

FOMC Minutes & Powell’s Speech 📉 

This week has been fairly silent on the economic reports side, however, we had some key meetings which would give an insight not only into the strength of the US economy but the potential impacts on the markets in the coming months.

🚀 FOMC Minutes: An overwhelming majority of the committee believe a rate cut is appropriate for September. However, they are still seeking further data consistent with even lower inflation.

🔥 Powell Speech: The market gets excited as Powell says “the time has come” for rate cuts in September.

Following today’s Powell Speech, BTC has surged over 2.5% and NASDAQ over 1%. 🚀 

Mt Gox repayments coming to an end 🚀 

Mt Gox repayments have reached over 92% now as the value exceeds $6.6B in BTC.

Despite this, BTC has been holding up extremely well, confirming our speculation that most of the panic has subsided. Not only that, but the previous price action was primarily due to panic and not so much due to the price impact from repayments selling pressure.

Sony builds an L2 (SONEIUM) 👀 

Sony has recently announced that they’re building a Layer 2 called Soneium on Ethereum.

It’s crazy to see such a massive corporation have a significant interest in crypto, so much so that they want to make an investment in developing their own blockchain (layer 2) based on the OP stack.

With a focus on Entertainment, Gaming and Finance, it’s something to keep an eye out in the next 2-3 years (given timeframe).

Sony Block Solutions has outlined its three-year plan:

1. 1st Year: Focus on attracting Web3 users and developers.

2. 2nd Year: Soneium aims to integrate with Sony’s diverse product lineup, including Sony Bank, Sony Music, and Sony Pictures.

3. 3rd Year: the goal is to onboard enterprises and general decentralized applications (dApps) onto the platform.

Market Analysis ✨

What a week! We told you something interesting would happen. Over the past few hours, BTC has begun its attempt to break out of the current range.

Let’s inspect the market together.

Tago Ratio Update: Our performance ratio seems to have bottomed out and looking to pivot further to the upside entering a “bull market” zone. As we allow another week for the market to develop, this will be one of our key confluence indicators towards shifting towards a more risk-on stance in the market.

USDT Dominance

• Given the past changes in USDT Dominance, we’re expecting a regression to the 5.11% level (monthly VWAP) as a potential pivot point.

• We will be keen on further positive market performance until then. We’ve tested monthly VWAP pivots for USDT Dominance and it has proven to have high-probability reactions that give us conviction.

• A lower USDT dominance leads to more liquidity in the crypto risk market, particularly blue chips such as BTC/ETH.

BTC Analysis

• As we break out of the current range with 2H closes above the previous wick high, we’re looking at higher levels above.

• Cumulative Volume Delta has been on a consistent downtrend in the past few weeks as shorts build up in the market. In the past two days, we had a massive spike in Delta.

• This could be a run-up to a large short squeeze. 🔥 

Looking at the upside 📈 🚀 

• 🧲 Billions in liquidations @ 65.75k, 66.25k — two magnet levels with potential pivots for a retracement

• Primary Targets 👆️ @ 64.6k, ~66k, 67k, 69.75k

• BTC can move fast, a potential scenario would be a swing failure from our previous macro high of ~70k. Look to open shorts there on any large reactions at the wick within the next week if this occurs.

• As always, a reminder to take profits on the way up for long positions. Don’t be greedy.

Looking at the downside 👇️ 👀 

• The current price levels are high-resistance, we likely get a retracement if we start to lose buying demand from delta.

• We may retest the current VAH @ 61.6k as our first key level to the downside.

• Lower Targets (and long opportunities) 👇️ 57.4k, 56k, 54k

• We’d suggest against making panic-long positions at the moment, however remember that there is little risk in buying spot BTC/ETH as you cannot be liquidated.

Ethereum Analysis

• Ethereum has been severely underperforming today and over the past few days, which presents a key opportunity given a potential continuation of the BTC rally upwards.

• We suspect ETH will make a “spring-like” move at some point, so any longs should sit tight for now!

• Key Levels to the Upside 👆️ @ 2780, 2900, 3318, 3535

• Key Levels to the Downside 👇️ @ 2600, 2500, 2450, 2300

Altcoin Analysis

• Awaiting further confidence in altcoin dominance.

• BTC Dominance looking to make further highs, especially with blue-chip underperformance in today’s rally (e.g Ethereum)

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